Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It has a deep reddish brown color and a pungent odor. Bromine has lively physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large number of organic compounds containing bromine. Due to the unique physicochemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material and is one of the key raw materials for chemical production and even the entire industrial production.
Let’s take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine in 2024 presents a “w” shape, with an average market price of 24800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 21900 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 11.69%.
From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2024, there were 6 months of increase and 6 months of decrease. The largest increase was in May, with prices rising by 13.78%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 16.22%.
Let’s take a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine. From the annual comparison chart, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, and its price is at a historical low of about 5 years.
Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. In the first stage, prices declined from January to early April, and this stage is in a continuous downward trend. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 24800 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the market average was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 26.61%. In the first quarter of 2024, prices have been unilaterally declining. At the beginning of the year, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory due to the Spring Festival, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and a focus on purchasing for essential needs. Downstream demand is weak, and there is sufficient supply of imported bromine and seawater bromine entering the market, resulting in a continuous decline in bromine prices until early April.
In the second stage, from mid April to June 22, the price increased from the average market price of 18100 yuan/ton in mid April to around 23500 yuan/ton on June 22, with a price increase of 29.83%. Mainly due to the stocking of goods by enterprises before May Day, prices experienced an upward trend, which continued until late June.
The third stage, the consolidation period from July to mid October, saw prices fluctuate around 19800-20600 yuan/ton. Mainly due to poor demand, enterprises have a stable mentality, and their intention to stabilize prices is more obvious. They mainly hold onto goods and are reluctant to sell. However, in the case of weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The game of supply and demand is dominated by price consolidation.
The fourth stage, which rose in late October and then fell. Mainly due to manufacturer maintenance, the price of bromine has increased. But with the price increase, downstream resistance began, and there was no driving force for the price increase of bromine, so the price subsequently consolidated and operated mainly.
The overall price of bromine in 2024 shows a “W” shape. Can the price improve in 2024
On the supply side: From the supply side, there has been relatively little change in the supply of bromine in China, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the decreasing underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow. The data shows that the domestic production in 2024 will be 92000 tons, with an average annual capacity utilization rate of 58%, which is not significantly different from last year.
In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s domestic bromine market is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. China’s bromine self-sufficiency rate has remained at a low level in recent years, but the dependence on bromine imports is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is constrained by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India. Customs data shows that the annual import volume of bromine in China will be close to 80000 tons in 2024.
In terms of fuel, the long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation with low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant compression of profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. Bromine procurement is mainly sporadic replenishment, while flame retardant manufacturers only focus on essential replenishment. The data shows that the downstream demand for bromine in 2024 is about 150000 tons.
Prediction: Business Society analysis believes that the price of bromine has been weak and consolidating in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported the market in the near future. As the year-end approaches, most companies have stocked up and prices will not fluctuate too much in the near future. The change in bromine supply in our country is relatively small, and we rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will remain weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year and businesses resume production, downstream demand may recover, and bromine may rebound after the year, depending on downstream market demand.
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