1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and stopped falling this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 827 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 885 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 12.31%. On January 9th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 822 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 41.29% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 37.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 850-900 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has declined, and the price of caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises has increased. Downstream alumina enterprises are approaching the end of the year, and their stocking enthusiasm is good. In addition, the strong operation of alumina prices has driven up the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 53rd week of 2025 (12.30-1.3), there were 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: baking soda (0.13%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-2.94%), light soda ash (-1.95%), and PVC (-0.36%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.85%.

Business analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been operating strongly, and the alumina industry has been operating strongly. Before the year, chlor alkali enterprise inventories remained low, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively positive. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.