According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2539 yuan/ton to 2504 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.38% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 2.23%, a month on month increase of 1.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The domestic methanol market is relatively weak. Methanol production enterprises have low inventory levels, Northwest CTO enterprises have no external procurement, and other downstream enterprises maintain essential procurement. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market has weakened. Downstream demand remains stable, port inventory accumulates, and port methanol also weakens.

As of the close on December 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2519 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2544 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2510 yuan/ton. It closed at 2533 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 339101 lots and a holding volume of 427094 lots, with a daily increase of -21842.

In terms of cost, the current supply of coal from production areas remains high, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has risen slowly. The accumulation of high coal reserves and the lack of enthusiasm for market coal procurement have led to the highest level of port inventory this year, suppressing the driving force of coal price increases. In the context of loose supply and demand, the price of thermal coal is showing a weak and bearish trend. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; Downstream chlorides: Mainstream factories in East China are undergoing shutdown and maintenance, with plans to restore equipment inventory. The demand for chlorides may increase slightly; There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde and dimethyl ether units, and there is little fluctuation in methanol demand. The majority of downstream demand for methanol is bearish, and the negative factors on the methanol demand side have an impact.

On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 5th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 439.00-440.00 euros/ton, up 23 euros/ton.

The future forecast suggests that inventory may not fluctuate significantly. The improvement of traditional downstream demand is limited, and attention still needs to be paid to the external procurement volume of some olefin enterprises. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.