According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 5960 yuan/ton to 5940 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 0.34% during the period.

In the first half of October, the mixed xylene market first rose and then fell. On October 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from 5960 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the mixed xylene market saw an overall rebound, with external and crude oil markets rising during the holiday period, driving the domestic market to make up for the holiday. The mixed xylene market saw a rebound of about 5%. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is generally low, lacking downstream support, and the mixed xylene market lacks the driving force to continue rising. Subsequently, with the decline of the external market and the general correction of the domestic market, the market maintains rigid demand trading, and prices continue to decline. Currently, the overall operation is weak.

In the second half of the month, the overall xylene market has declined this cycle, and the poor performance of the post holiday crude oil market has dragged down market sentiment. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose, and some facilities in Shandong have been put into operation, as well as overall high port inventories. In terms of demand, the downstream market tends to be rigid and weak, which has dragged down market sentiment. Spot market offers continued to decline during the week, and refineries also actively shipped, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of October 30th, East China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5850-5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride customers replenished their inventory, and the price of phthalic anhydride briefly increased. As the replenishment ended, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell; In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, port inventories in East China have been accumulating recently, while plant construction in Shandong has increased. Refineries have accumulated inventory, which has a negative impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.