This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market remained stable and consolidated, with some spot prices rebounding slightly. Suppliers are reluctant to sell at low prices and tend to prefer contract trading. The positive support for the week mainly comes from the supply side, among which the Jieyang unit of Jihua is scheduled to shut down unexpectedly. The 130000 ton/year unit will be shut down for maintenance for about a week from August 20th, and its downstream 600000 ton ABS unit will maintain normal production. There is a demand for external acrylonitrile procurement, which has led to a reduction in supply in the South China region, and some buyers have entered the East China market, forming support for market sentiment. At the same time, the current acrylonitrile price is at a historical low, and there is an intention to buy from the bottom and replenish the market. Coupled with the approaching end of the month, the enthusiasm of middlemen for spot sales is not high, which has pushed up the focus of local negotiations.

Fundamental analysis

On the cost side: With the phased support of demand this week, the propylene market slightly rose. As of August 22, the mainstream closing reference is 6780-6930 yuan/ton. International oil prices continue to decline, dragging down market sentiment. However, with the current concessions from propylene enterprises, the overall inventory is in a controllable state, and downstream demand buying is still acceptable, providing some support for price trends. It is expected that the propylene market prices will remain stable in the near future.

Supply side: The average weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile in China this week was 78.72%, an increase of 4.64% compared to last week. As of August 22, the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was about 74800 tons, an increase of 5400 tons from last week, and the inventory is still to be digested.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with an average weekly operating rate of 65.4% in the ABS industry, down from -1.6% last week; The acrylic fiber industry started operating at 77.4% per week, unchanged from last week.

Market forecast: In the near future, some devices will release plans for later load reduction and maintenance, which will have a certain positive impact on the supply side. At the same time, it will also trigger intermediaries and downstream users to buy stocks and replenish, which may stimulate market exploration. However, the short-term supply reduction is not significant, and the industry inventory still needs to be digested. Coupled with the slow recovery of terminal consumption, the market rebound space is limited. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile price will rebound slightly next week, and the spot self pickup price may reach around 8100-8300 yuan/ton.