This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The upstream raw material propylene market has fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient cost support. Although several acrylonitrile factories have shut down or reduced production this week, the substantial impact on the site is limited, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The industry lacks confidence in the future, and transactions are mostly biased towards the low-end. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for self pickup in East China ports is 8200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8250 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic acrylonitrile plants has decreased to around 77%.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has slightly declined this week, with mainstream closing at 6850-6900 yuan/ton, and transactions in the East China region at 7150-7200 yuan/ton. The international crude oil and polypropylene futures market continued to decline during the week, coupled with expectations of increasing market supply and significant impact from low-priced sources. The lack of support from favorable fundamentals has increased the caution of industry operators. At the same time, the overall shipment of enterprises has not shown significant improvement, making it difficult to form support for price trends. It is expected that propylene prices will mainly consolidate weakly.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China have slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units have been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.37%, an increase of 0.30% month on month and a decrease of 18.34% year-on-year.

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience a high-level decline next week, with insufficient cost support. Although acrylonitrile factories have taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tend to be low-end, and the news of production reduction has not boosted the acrylonitrile market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will be around 8000 yuan/ton.