1、 Price trend
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According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isobutene market has shown a downward trend since May, with the benchmark price of isobutene at 12225 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.64%. In mid to early May, the price of isobutene remained stable, and after May 14th, the price of isobutene began to decline continuously. The price trend of MTBE on the cost side fluctuates slightly, but overall shows a fluctuating downward trend.
2、 Market analysis
Cost side:
On May 23rd, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.70 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.36 per barrel, a decrease of $0.54 or 0.7%. As of now, crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil falling to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.
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The domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and falling. From May 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE dropped from 7212 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.55% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%. This month, many manufacturers are exporting normally, but the overall supply of spot goods is still relatively high. The overall demand for gasoline is relatively flat. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the domestic MTBE market is mainly weak and consolidating.
3、 Future Market Forecast
On the cost side, the overall decline in international oil prices in May combined with the sluggish trend of the MTBE market has constrained the price trend due to changes in expectations. The isobutene market is showing a downward trend. Partial maintenance and resumption of work for isobutene have resulted in a relaxed supply of domestic goods. Downstream demand lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak in the short term.
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