According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has recently seen a narrow consolidation from May 13th to May 22nd. On May 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 7480 yuan/ton on May 13th.
International crude oil weak shock, toluene cost weak support
Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 22nd, WTI07 contract settlement is 77.57 US dollars per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $81.90 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 13th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 922-924 US dollars per ton.
Starting production of xylene and increasing toluene demand with weak support
Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.
The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent
The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 16th, the toluene inventory in East China was 53000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 8500 tons.
There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease
The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in late May; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a downward risk in the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may experience a weak trend in the later stage and slightly rise after consolidation.
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