In April, the domestic ABS market rose at a high level, with most brands experiencing an increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12475 yuan/ton, a+2.57% increase or decrease from the price level on April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The low load pattern of the domestic ABS industry has continued this month, and the operating rate at the end of the month has decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. In the first half of the month, enterprises underwent centralized maintenance, and in the second half, there was also varying degrees of load reduction. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in on-site supply, resulting in strong support for ABS spot goods from the supply side throughout the month.

Cost factor: The overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in April was positive, with acrylonitrile market maintaining a positive trend throughout the month. The equipment load of the enterprise decreased within the month, and the news of resuming work in the future is uncertain. The supply is declining, providing supplier support for acrylonitrile, and the main enterprises are actively raising prices; The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have strengthened, providing strong support for acrylonitrile; Downstream, there is a surge in pre holiday stocking and consumption, with many bulls gathering in the market. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to operate strongly in the future.

This month, the domestic butadiene market has reached a high level of consolidation and operation. In the first half of the year, the external market rose, with a premium in bidding sources, providing support to the market. In late October, the terminal will replenish its position before the holiday and support spot prices. It is expected that the fluctuation of butadiene prices during the May Day period may be limited.

In terms of styrene market, it improved after rising in April. At the beginning of the month, driven by six consecutive increases in international oil prices, the cost of styrene was strongly supported. Combined with the decline in social inventory, the styrene market continues to rise. During the month, the supply and demand of styrene increased, but at the end of the month, there was pressure on the supply side due to port arrivals, while crude oil fell, leading to a reversal in the market. The future prices may be mainly organized and operated.

In terms of demand: In April, the main terminal demand for ABS remained stable with a slight decrease, and the overall factory load remained generally stable. The stocking operation was mainly focused on buying in demand. The supply of low-end goods in the market decreased within the month, and traders actively raised prices. Due to the high price of ABS, the pre holiday stocking situation is not significant. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side provides average market support.

Future Market Forecast

The domestic ABS prices have risen at a high level this month. From a fundamental perspective, all three upstream materials of ABS have seen price increases, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. At the end of the month, the demand side has just entered the market, and the support for spot goods has slowed down. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to remain strong at high levels in the short term.