1、 Price trend

 

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According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased in April, while the factory price of loose water increased. On April 30th, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels in China was 6500 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6600 yuan/ton. The market price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased by 1.52% within the month, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloroethylene bulk water was quoted at 4800-5000 yuan/ton, increasing by 150 to 200 yuan/ton.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

In early April, the demand trend in the trichloroethylene market warmed up, and the increase in the factory price of loose water drove the barrel packaging market to narrow rebound, shifting the overall focus of the market upwards. In the middle of the year, the market for trichloroethylene has stabilized, with stable production and a stable trading atmosphere in the market. Downstream demand based procurement is the main focus, and the trichloroethylene market is maintaining stable operation. Manufacturers have a strong mentality of price support. At the end of the month, some dealers sorted out their inventory before the holiday, and the market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was slightly reduced.

 

The following is the price situation of mainstream manufacturers of trichloroethylene dispersion water in April:

 

The factory quotation for loose water in Shandong region is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

 

The factory quotation for loose water in the southwest region is around 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

 

The factory quotation for loose water in Inner Mongolia is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

 

Cost side:

 

The market for raw material calcium carbide has stabilized after a decline. After entering April, the domestic calcium carbide market has experienced a continuous decline and has recently stabilized and consolidated. The focus of the ethylene market has slightly shifted downwards. The current average price of ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia is 905 US dollars per ton, while the average price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia is 1010 US dollars per ton, and the market remains strong. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main focus is on pre holiday factory inventory, and the trading atmosphere is average. The liquid chlorine market has a volatile trend, fluctuating up and down. The current factory price in Shandong region is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

 

Supply side:

 

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In April, the domestic trichloroethylene plant started normal operation and the supply was stable. Trichloroethylene is a net export product. According to customs data, the export volume of trichloroethylene from China in March 2024 was 2115 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% and a month on month increase of 69%. The total export volume from January to March 2024 was 6102.96 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 1%.

 

Demand side:

 

The market focus of refrigerant R134a remains high. On April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.37% compared to the same period last year. The market supply is stable, and R134a is mainly used as a refrigerant for automotive air conditioning systems. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s automobile production and sales reached 6.606 million and 6.72 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 10.6%, respectively. The industry prosperity index has rebounded, and downstream demand remains unchanged. However, the price competition in the automotive industry is exceptionally fierce, with a profit margin of only 4.3%. At present, the refrigerant R134a market will continue to operate steadily.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

The trichloroethylene analyst from Shengyishe believes that the downward shift of the cost center is limited, and the demand side is strong at a high level. It is expected that the trichloroethylene market will operate steadily in the later stage.

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