According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has seen a slight upward trend in recent days (3.11-3.18). On March 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the 7270 yuan/ton on March 11th.

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with toluene receiving some support

Recently (3.11-3.18), international crude oil has once again strengthened under the resonance of multiple factors, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 15th, WTI05 contract settlement is 80.58 USD/barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $85.34 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has once again risen, providing some support for the domestic market. As of March 15th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 903-905 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate is maintained at over 80%. The operation of the Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, but there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price trend has increased, and the PX external price has risen. As of the 14th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1016-1018 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1041-1043 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

After the holiday, the domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid March, the national refinery operation has been around 7.3.

Toluene port inventory continues to remain at high levels, and supply pressure still exists

Domestic toluene port inventories have slightly decreased but continued to remain at high levels. As of March 8th, toluene inventories in East China were 89000 tons, while those in South China were 15000 tons, slightly lower than the previous period. However, pressure on toluene supply remains. Domestic toluene production has slightly increased, with a rate of around 7.60% as of March 14th.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port is high, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly experience fluctuations in the later period.