1ă Trend analysis
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According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of March 15th, the spot nickel quotation was 141028.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. Recently, nickel prices have continued to rise due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel mining approval and strong momentum in ternary material orders.
Nickel weekly rise and fall chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.
Nickel industry chain
LME nickel inventory
As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly rebounded recently, with 74178 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, an increase of 4.26% compared to early February.
On a macro level, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the US PPI increased by 0.6% month on month in February, marking the largest increase since August 2023. This is mainly driven by the rise in fuel and food prices, further highlighting the continued existence of inflationary pressure. At the same time, lower than expected growth in retail sales data has raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of consumer spending. In this context, the US dollar index remains strong, and market risk appetite shows a certain degree of volatility.
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On the supply side, the Surrey Highlands in the Philippines have entered the rainy season, causing the quantity of nickel ore exported to China to remain low. The approval speed of the Work Plan and Budget Report (RKAB) for mineral and coal mining business activities in Indonesia has accelerated.
In terms of demand, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from January to February were 1.252 million and 1.207 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 29.4% year-on-year, with a market share of 30%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 182000, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. The operating rate of China’s stainless steel production capacity in March was 73.11%, which is at a low level in the same period. However, the production volume of 300 series stainless steel in March was 1.7205 million tons, which is at a high level in the same period. At present, the downstream demand for stainless steel in China is still difficult to be optimistic. The weekly social inventory of 300 series stainless steel has increased to 530000 tons and is at a relatively high historical level, which has led stainless steel traders to proactively reduce prices and ship. But with the continuous introduction of stable real estate policies, it is expected that the newly started and completed areas of the Chinese real estate industry will gradually recover, thereby supporting the demand for stainless steel decorative panels such as elevators and household appliances.
In summary, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and slows down balance sheet contraction, Indonesia’s approval of nickel mining continues to affect supply, domestic nickel sulfate production losses, and downstream replenishment demand increase, nickel supply expectations are tight, and there is still room for short-term nickel prices to rise. However, domestic electrolytic nickel social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level, stainless steel social inventory is high, and production is beginning to turn losses, which may suppress demand for nickel iron. It is expected that the short-term rise in nickel prices may slow down.
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