In February 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market emerged from a rebound after a decline, with a decline at the beginning of the month, stable operation in mid month, and a rebound in the market after the holiday in late October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline in February, with a decline of 8.55%.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia continued its volatile downward trend in January. The main reason is that the supply in Shandong region has increased, and some of the faulty enterprises have resumed operation. The changes in production are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and the two lakes, affecting the northern and central plains regions. The expected supply performance is loose. The influx of a large number of imported goods into the port has had an impact on the domestic liquid ammonia market. Shandong has repeatedly lowered factory prices in collaboration with large factories in Hebei, Hubei and other regions in the early days, with a cumulative reduction of over 500 yuan/ton in the first week of February.

In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, some devices in the main production areas of the north have been affected in terms of operation, and under the influence of environmental protection, the operating rate has been affected, leading to a decline in production. And there are devices in the Central Plains region that delay resuming production. The performance of the market demand is still good, with an increase in new orders and improved supply and demand, which has stabilized the ammonia market. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches and trading is light, the ammonia market has not rebounded.

In the latter half of the year, liquid ammonia experienced a rebound, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the northern main production areas, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, which has led to a shortage of market supply in the short term. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. After the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. Manufacturers have raised their prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton in the latter half of the year. The dealer’s offer naturally skyrocketed. But the market did not continue until the end of the month. In the last week of February, the market supply and demand tended to balance, and prices also returned to stability.

Future Market Forecast

According to liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society, there is still a local tense atmosphere in the market on the supply side, but with the resumption of work on some devices, the supply may be favorable or exhausted in the later stage. On the demand side, there are certain expectations. The demand for the Spring Festival will gradually recover, and the demand for agriculture will increase to a certain extent. In addition, large factories are generally holding up prices, and there may still be some upward space for liquid ammonia in the later stage, with strong rigidity as the main factor.