According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have recently bottomed out. On February 4th, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

This week, the domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have remained stable; As of the 4th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 500000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price remained stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 405000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 517500 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 550000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 407500 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic light rare earth market has bottomed out, and downstream enterprises have increased their holidays recently. There have been fewer transactions in the light rare earth market, and the new orders are average. The overall rare earth market is stable at a low level. Recently, some production enterprises have gradually taken a break, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have also started to take a break, with production enterprises mainly consuming inventory. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still inverted, with poor transaction performance. However, as the year-end approaches, the light rare earth market has recently stopped falling and stabilized.

According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a low market situation for light rare earths.

Market forecast: In the short term, as the year-end approaches, magnetic material companies will gradually begin to take a break, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will remain stable at a low level in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.