According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1032 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of 866 yuan/ton), the price increased by 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%. Compared to September 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.17%.

Looking back at the first half of 2023, the phosphorus ore market experienced a continuous and significant decline in the second quarter. At that time, downstream demand in the phosphorus ore market was weak, and under the supply and demand game, the focus of the phosphorus ore market continued to decline.

Since September, the phosphorus ore market has ushered in a “golden nine silver ten” period. After experiencing a low period, the market has started to steadily recover. The spot supply of phosphorus ore is tight, and some mining enterprises mainly rely on pre orders. The boost in downstream demand has driven the market back to a high level. Many mining enterprises in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan regions have started to actively increase the price of phosphorus ore. By the end of October, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore broke the thousand yuan mark.

In November, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market rose slightly again, with some mining companies in certain regions having good shipments. The prices of new orders continued to rise slightly, with an increase of around 20-50 yuan/ton. On November 3rd, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore was around 1000-1120 yuan/ton. Compared to early September, the increase is nearly 20%.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for phosphate ore is stable, and some areas of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market are gradually opening winter storage and stocking. The overall demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer is performing well. An industry insider stated that the new orders for terminal phosphate fertilizer production are currently being shipped well, so the demand side continues to provide support for the phosphate ore market.

In terms of supply: After the Double Festival, downstream demand for phosphate ore is still good. As downstream pre festival inventory gradually depletes, some downstream enterprises gradually start purchasing in demand after the festival. The demand side provides stable support for phosphate ore, and some mining enterprises boost the market after the festival, driving the overall phosphate ore market to continue to approach high levels. Downstream export orders and winter storage expectations also support the mentality of the phosphate ore market.

Prediction of future market for phosphate rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is mild. The overall construction intensity in Guizhou region is not strong, and the import and export prices of phosphorus ore do not have an advantage. The use of phosphorus ore relies on domestic independent mining. Therefore, in the short term, the overall supply of domestic phosphorus ore market is in a tight state, and the downstream terminal nitrogen fertilizer market is strong, providing support for phosphorus ore from bottom to top. According to phosphorus ore data analysts from Business Society, At the end of the year, the phosphorus ore market mainly operates at high levels with a stronger trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.