According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fell in October: urea prices dropped from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2515.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.57%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 0.36% year-on-year.

On October 30th, the urea commodity index was 118.91, a decrease of 0.08 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 113.87% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in October.

Cost side: The upstream market has significantly increased

Price Details of Yangquan Anthracite (Washing Medium Block) in October

October 1st/ October 15th/ October 31st

Yangquan/ 1210 yuan/ton/ 1290 yuan/ton/ 1290 yuan/ton

In October, the price of liquefied natural gas increased significantly, from 4268.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5270.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 23.48%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 4.87% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) has slightly increased, rising from 1210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1290 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first fell and then rose, dropping from 4000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78% at the end of the month. Overall, the upstream market for urea has significantly increased, with good cost support.

On the demand side: melamine prices rise first and then fall

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are good. Sporadic fertilization in agriculture. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. The price of melamine decreased slightly in October, from 7275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.37%. From a supply perspective: Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and their daily urea production is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Looking at the future market, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early November. The prices of anthracite and liquid ammonia have significantly increased, with good cost support. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. The demand for agriculture has weakened, with industrial demand being the main focus. Urea may fluctuate slightly in the future.