Last week, domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise, with manufacturers’ quotations rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong increased by 5.50% this week. As of September 11, the trading center has moved up the range of 200 to 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3700-3850 yuan/ton.

From the supply side perspective, the increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to a shortage of supply in the main production areas in the north, resulting in a decrease in factory operating rates and a decline in production, which provides a positive impact on the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and the impact of production restrictions in Shanxi and other regions has not faded, causing short-term low operating rates and tight supply for enterprises. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times, and as of September 11th, the cumulative increase has reached over 400 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, downstream urea, compound fertilizers and other fields just need stable support, coupled with an increase in fertilizer usage in autumn, the market releases a certain amount of growth. Overall, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by immediate demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia is difficult to improve in the short term, especially the imbalance between regions that may lead to a widening price difference between regions. Prices in the northern region will still remain high, and there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices even with little change in demand.