According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased recently (9.1-9.11). On September 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8240 yuan/ton, while on September 1st, the benchmark price was 8090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.85%.

Strong cost support for toluene due to significant increase in crude oil prices

Since September, crude oil futures have risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.64 per barrel for the 11 contract. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Rising prices of refined oil and high demand for refinery operations support toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased, while refinery inventory has remained low; In addition, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later stage, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions. Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand.

Downstream PX starts construction, 7 pairs of toluene have rigid support needed

The operating rate of PX in China is over 70%, but during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal. Driven by the rise in crude oil, PX’s external price trend has increased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia are 1081-1083 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1106-1108 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices are operating at high levels, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene, but as the price of toluene rises, downstream gas purchases are slightly insufficient. In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.