1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68906.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the 68236.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 10.52%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and increased by 8%, with copper prices showing a slight increase recently.

Macroscopically, US economic data has been improving recently, with the People’s Bank of China lowering its MLF rate by 15 basis points and reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, respectively, boosting market sentiment and preference for a rebound. China’s central bank report: resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, support the resolution of local debt risks, adjust real estate policies in a timely manner, boost market confidence, appreciate the renminbi, and recover the prevalence of non-ferrous metals.

Supply side: The mining side remains abundant. The centralized maintenance of domestic smelting will be completed in August, and production will return to a relatively high level. However, it will face centralized maintenance again in September. Long orders of Russian copper continue to flow in, while the arrival pace of Lomo copper is lagging due to the impact of African transportation capacity. Some smelters have export plans.

On the demand side: In July, both Southern Power Grid and State Grid saw an increase in new orders, and some orders will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate. Some air conditioning and refrigeration enterprises have entered the stage of equipment maintenance and vacation, and consumer support has weakened. The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. In terms of electronics, demand is slowly recovering.

In summary, the domestic policy efforts continue to increase to benefit the market. In August, the domestic maintenance is completed, and production is expected to return to a new high. Demand is expected to be strong and weak, with copper prices expected to fluctuate mainly.