Price trend

After the domestic ABS market rose in July, it fell back, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 10500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In July, the load of the ABS industry showed an increasing trend. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has increased by nearly 10% to over 87% compared to the beginning of the month, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. At the end of the month, there was a significant increase in inventory, with an overall increase of over 150000 tons. The supply side’s support for the spot market is gradually weakening.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this month has remained stable with two increases. Among them, the raw material acrylonitrile market fluctuated slightly and remained stable. In the first half of the month, the raw material price was relatively strong and there was an increase in price. The negative outlook gradually dissipated, and the support for acrylonitrile leveled off; Downstream construction fluctuates at low levels, resulting in poor demand for acrylonitrile; At the end of the month, the supply side slightly declined, providing slight support for the acrylonitrile market. The price of acrylonitrile rose in the first half of the month, but the rise in the second half was sluggish and slightly declined.

The price of butadiene in China has gradually increased this month. At the beginning of the month, there was a strong increase in suppliers, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies resisted high prices. In the middle of the month, there was a concentration of parking news, and the transaction price of the external market was relatively high, which boosted the sentiment of domestic merchants; The expectation of supply side at the end of the month has led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in the butadiene market has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated and increased in July. The early decline in styrene market was the main trend, but the price rebounded this month with a significant increase. The main reason for the increase is that the international crude oil price fluctuates higher, driving the pure benzene market to continue to rise, with strong cost support, small increase in downstream construction, increased spot transactions, more favorable styrene, and rising market.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a decline in stocking enthusiasm. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the three upstream materials of ABS saw mixed ups and downs, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant gradually rose within the month of construction, and market inventory increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to be weak.