1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, as China’s RMB exchange rate continues to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data has been released. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in US CPI has continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It has been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have weakened, the US dollar continues to decline, and the metal market has reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production has been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron is facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still puts pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel is differentiated in the terminal field. Maintain an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there has been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low level, which is beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side has increased, while traditional demand has weakened while new energy has increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that the short-term volatility of nickel prices will be mainly strong.