1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has been rising all the way this week. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060.00 yuan/ton, while on July 7th, the benchmark price was 7210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; The PMI in the United States decreased in June, and investors’ concerns about economic slowdown and energy demand have increased; Under weak supply and demand expectations, PX rebounded weakly, and short-term PX fluctuated with crude oil and downstream PTA.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have shown an upward trend this week. According to TDI supplier information guidance, as factory prices gradually fall, the mindset of operators has changed, and the intention to sell low has weakened. There is an upward expectation for prices, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that TDI will be sorted out in the future. On July 3rd, the TDI benchmark price was 17300.00 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 18100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62%.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The benchmark price for PX on July 3rd was 8250 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 8250 yuan/ton, with no changes during the week. PX has good profits, the overall load will increase, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply. Terminal polyester has entered the off-season, and demand is difficult to improve. PX’s supply and demand expectations are weak, and the rebound is weak. Merchants are worried about the increase in supply, suppressing market strength, and PX will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline has seen a significant increase this week, but has fallen back over the weekend. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478.60 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 8730.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer vacation. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving, with gasoline prices running higher.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The main positive factors for toluene this week are the production reduction plans of oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as the peak fuel consumption season in the United States in July and August, where gasoline demand support is still ongoing; The levying of consumption tax on some related products provides an opportunity for market speculation, and the toluene market takes advantage of this opportunity to rise; The bearish resistance in the international crude oil market has not been eliminated, but the fundamentals have strengthened, and it is expected that toluene prices may rise first and then decline. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.