This week (6.26-30), domestic Adipic acid continued to decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the weekly decline of Adipic acid was 0.66%. The market trading center has shifted down by about 100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of Adipic acid market is 8900-9200 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the lack of support for raw materials and the weak supply-demand pattern will remain unchanged.
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Industrial chain
The above figure shows that this week, the Adipic acid industry chain as a whole was cold, the shock range of upstream products was weakened, and the raw materials fell across the whole line. The downstream main product PA66 remained stable, and the price did not improve.
Cost side: The overall cost of raw materials is relatively empty
This week’s crude oil range fluctuated, lacking strong guidance. The domestic pure benzene price continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared to last week, with a decline of 0.05% this week (a decrease of 0.21% last week). The main refinery’s quotation has not changed much, and the supply side is relatively abundant, with a backlog of goods, and the market is still in the process of destocking. The price of Cyclohexanone continued its previous weakness. This week, it failed to continue the rising trend of last week, falling slightly by 0.42%. In terms of cost, the upstream raw material market is dominated by weak operation, and the lack of cost support gives Adipic acid manufacturers the power to further reduce prices.
Supply side: There is little change in enterprise equipment
From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall change of Adipic acid this week was not significant, maintaining about 65%. The prices of major manufacturers continued to decline this week, and the quotations of Shandong manufacturers were reduced to 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s previous market support effect was not ideal, and shipments were hindered, resulting in concentrated price reductions for later shipments, but it was affected by weak demand. The manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.
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On the demand side: it is difficult to form a strong boost on the demand side
The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the price hovered at a low level this week, making it difficult to break free from the weak fluctuation range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PA66 fell by 0% this week. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 19500 to 19800 yuan/ton. In addition, the turnover of Caprolactam in other downstream areas was weak, and the price was low. TPU entered the off-season of the industry, and the orders were reduced. The demand was difficult to improve, so the turnover of Adipic acid was reduced.
Future prospects
With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believed that, on the cost side, crude oil was affected by the hawkish expectation that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike had not ended, and fuel demand was suppressed. There is a lack of positive guidance on the cost side. Pure benzene and Cyclohexanone are also in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall. The supply and demand sides may continue to maintain a weak balance, with low production and low demand continuing to play a game. In general, Adipic acid is expected to be dominated by weak operation in the short term.
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