According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly increased, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased. On June 8, the rare earth index was 476 points, a decrease of 52.73% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 75.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, terbium oxide and metal terbium rose slightly. As of September 9, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.115 million yuan/ton, up 1.68% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.07 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.98% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.68 million yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.3 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.45 million yuan/ton.

This week, the heavy rare earth market rebounded slightly, with an increase in recent inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream demand is still weak, metal factory orders are relatively scarce, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the pessimism of the rare earth market remains strong.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 713000 and 717000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which correspondingly suppressed the price increase in the domestic medium and heavy rare earth market.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth market will fluctuate and rise mainly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demand such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.