1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7160.00 yuan/ton, while on May 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.
In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will rise to historical highs in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports continued to decline in May due to the implementation of production reduction commitments; Canada’s wildfire has caused production disruptions and the OPEC+production reduction plan has begun to be implemented. It is expected that oil supply will significantly decline in May, and the prospect of supply tightening will boost the oil market; The US debt ceiling negotiation released an optimistic signal, and investors were less worried.
The possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates in June has increased, and the US dollar has risen to its highest in two months. International crude oil closed lower on Thursday.
On May 19th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil for the trading company was 72.83 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.14% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 76.96 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.20% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).
Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have been falling all the way this week. Downstream demand support for TDI is weak, with strong resistance to high prices and poor enthusiasm for entering the market; The factory’s spot filling is slow, with a focus on supporting the market. Traders have a poor mentality, and the trading atmosphere on the market is cold. The trading market is pessimistic, with a lower trading center and a game between supply and demand in the market. The short-term TDI market is weak. On May 15th, the TDI benchmark price was 20166.67 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 18500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.26%.
In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The PX price was 8300 yuan/ton on May 15th and 8300 yuan/ton on May 19th, with no changes during the week. The supply and demand expectations for PX are weak, and the positive effects of PX are gradually weakening. Prices are under pressure, and the supply of goods on the market is normal, with good sales.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline rose and then fell this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8356.4 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 8398.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%. The wholesale price of domestic gasoline is under pressure, and the market purchase and sales are light; The market news is gradually improving, but overall it still points towards being short, and downstream users have a cautious attitude towards stocking, which is difficult to change.
3、 Future Market Forecast
The support for OPEC+production reduction plan remains, and issues such as the debt ceiling crisis urgently need to be addressed. Demand expectations are improving, and there is still potential upward momentum for oil prices. There is uncertainty in the positive factors for toluene fundamentals, while downstream performance is weak and actual negotiations are average. Affected by the macro environment, it is expected that the price of toluene will show a slow upward trend next week.
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