1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly this week. As of March 10, the spot nickel quotation was 185650 yuan/ton, down 4.47% from the beginning of the week and 23.04% year-on-year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price has risen by 4 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, and the nickel price has declined in a weak way recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro side, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in his testimony to the Congress this week that the Federal Reserve might accelerate the pace of interest rate increase and raise the interest rate to a higher level than previously expected, which increased people’s concerns about economic activity and global industrial metal demand. China’s CPI fell in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 0.5% lower than the previous month; The production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI was flat on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The year-on-year decrease was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

In terms of supply: the newly built pure nickel capacity is still to be released, and domestic smelters also have incremental expectations. The supply tension of pure nickel has eased. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel market has been significantly sufficient. It is expected that the pure nickel output will be in a climbing state in March. The import side is expected to increase after the news of Russian nickel mixed pricing came out last week.

In terms of demand: although the contradiction of stainless steel supply is difficult to solve for a while, it also forces some enterprises to start the maintenance plan in advance, and the stainless steel went to the warehouse in a small scale last week, and the demand showed a warming signal; In the new energy vehicle industry, according to the data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 658000, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, penetration rate of 12.1%, and China’s share of 56.9%. At the same time, the policy helped to stimulate demand, and the share of new energy vehicles market was expected to increase unchanged.

To sum up, the current nickel price has reached the cost line of nickel electrodeposition from nickel sulfate, which may temporarily support the nickel price. However, Russian nickel import is expected to be strong, and domestic refined nickel smelting has not heard of any disturbance. The overall supply increment is expected to remain unchanged for the time being. In the peak season of gold, silver and silver, consumer demand slowly recovered. The short-term macro market suppressed the metal price, and the supply and demand increased. It is expected that the short-term low volatility of nickel price will prevail.