Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of paraxylene in February was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

In February, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the operation of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 tons unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Pengzhou Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit was stable, the Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Urumqi Petrochemical unit was about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The operation of overseas units is normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene is stable. In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated, and the PX outer price range fluctuated. As of the 24th, the closing price in Asia was 994-996 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1019-1021 dollars/ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained recently. Overall, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is around 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic PX market trend is temporarily stable.

In February, the international crude oil price fell slightly by 3.23%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.82 dollars/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain supporting role in the international oil price and suppressed the decline of crude oil. On the whole, the price trend of crude oil market declined, while the price trend of paraxylene was stable.

In February, the domestic PTA spot market declined slightly, with the average price of 5636 yuan/ton in the East China market by the end of the month, down 2.21% from the beginning of the month. Recently, some PTA devices have been overhauled, the operating rate is around 72%, the PTA supply has decreased slightly, the short fiber supply in the downstream has increased slightly in the near future, and the start of the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills has been resumed, but the start of construction is less than expected, the demand recovery is less than expected, the short fiber enterprises have just purchased, and the short fiber enterprises have accumulated a small stock. On the whole, the downstream market is still weak. In general, the downstream textile industry is volatile, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play against the demand side, and the downstream PTA inventory and supply will tighten expectations. With the coming of the “golden three silver four” peak season, the market’s expectation of demand is still relatively optimistic. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise in the future.