According to the monitoring of the business community, in November, the domestic adipic acid market went down unilaterally, mainly due to negative cost and imbalance between supply and demand. The market price range of adipic acid at the end of the month was 9600-9900 yuan/ton. Adipic acid dropped 7.40% in the whole month.
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Adipic acid industry chain
Adipic acid industry chain fell across the board this month. The upstream raw materials of adipic acid declined significantly, especially the drop of pure benzene and cyclohexane was heavy, both exceeding 10%. The downstream PA66 also dropped significantly, nearly 8%. The terminal demand was sluggish, which reduced the shipment speed of adipic acid. The whole industrial chain resonates downward.
Cost side
On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid has basically the same trend as the upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the first up and then down market. Petrochemical manufacturers have repeatedly lowered the guidance price this month, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan. On the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is heavy, and the port inventory is high; On the other hand, the downstream demand slows down, and the substitution of low price of hydrogenated benzene for goods has a negative impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene dropped by 11.9% from October 11 to the end of the month.
Supply side
From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the supplier settlement price was introduced, and generally low price settlement was adopted; In addition, the listing of Shandong Dachang was lowered for three times at the beginning, middle and end of the month, with a cumulative range of 2000 yuan. The supplier’s low price shipment brought heavy pressure on the market. From the perspective of the operating rate, the operating rate of this month remained around 60%, slightly higher than that of last month.
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Demand side
The downstream demand of adipic acid is strong, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in November, at 7.92%. The spot supply was stable and abundant, causing the social inventory to rise. Especially the bad news on the demand side. When the traditional peak season ends, the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is further reduced, and the resistance to high price goods is strong. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the price drops again and again. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 24000 yuan/ton.
Future outlook
The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil continues to be weak, and pure benzene continues to decline, which makes it difficult to benefit the cost side in the short term. At the end of the supply side maintenance month, some devices have joined the maintenance team, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. However, the demand side will not change the downturn in the short term, and the supply and demand game will continue. On the basis of comprehensive consideration, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the settlement price at the end of the month.
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