Price trend

In the second week of November, the domestic POM market rose by a narrow margin, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13700 yuan/ton on November 6 and 13866.67 yuan/ton on November 14, with a weekly increase and decrease of+1.22%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range last week. During the week, some large plants shut down their production units and the supply decreased. However, in some regions, there is resistance in the shipment of goods, and the demand is limited, and the downstream receiving price is weak; Shandong formaldehyde market is also vulnerable to consolidation due to poor transportation. There were few real deals on the floor, and trading did not improve significantly.

Supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level. Except Zhangjiagang Xuhuacheng, other polymerization plants are operating at full load, and the current industry load is more than 90%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry was high last week, the supply of goods in the market was generally tight. The confidence of producers and traders is fair, and the willingness to support prices is generally strong. The trading position of domestic POM in East China and South China markets rose together, with an average weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. However, the enthusiasm of the terminal enterprises for goods preparation is general, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

In the second week of November, the market of POM rose in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is high, and some spot logistics are not smooth due to the impact of public health events. The market supply is slightly tight and there is an expectation of further tightening. In terms of demand, it is slightly insufficient. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. The fundamentals of the market are mixed, and the supply and demand pull the game. It is expected that in the short term, the POM market will rise and be blocked, and fall back to the consolidation market.