Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic ABS market rose in October and then fell back, and the spot prices of various brands rose first and then fell. As of October 31, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12050 yuan/ton, up or down by -6.23% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: In terms of raw styrene, the market price of styrene fell this month, and rose slightly at the end of the month, but the range was limited. In the first half of the month, the port inventory kept rising, the domestic styrene supply increased synchronously, and the domestic market witnessed warehouse building, which was difficult to support the styrene market. In the second half of the month, we went to the warehouse slightly, and in addition, many styrene manufacturers had maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, so the spot market of styrene slightly corrected. However, the international crude oil futures declined, the petrochemical industry chain was weak and consolidated, and the rise of styrene spot market was limited under the weakening of costs. It is expected that the styrene market will still be weak in the short term

In October, the domestic acrylonitrile market was positive and continued to rise. Since September, domestic acrylonitrile enterprises have successively stopped operation and reduced load. At present, the acrylonitrile industry has started to operate at a lower level, with the overall load of the industry at about 60% to 70%, and the supply side pressure has eased compared with the previous period. The downstream acrylic fiber and acrylic fiber started to improve, and acrylamide and nitrile rubber started to work stably. The demand side of acrylonitrile during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period was relatively strong. At present, on the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is not big, on the other hand, the demand continues to just need support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term. However, the acrylonitrile industry has just undergone capacity expansion, so it is recommended to pay close attention to the information on industry load.

The domestic butadiene market continued to decline in October. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market was highlighted. The quotations of major manufacturers were lowered, and manufacturers in Northeast China were bidding for export to increase market circulation. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak, and the price difference between upstream and downstream continues to narrow. The butadiene market is difficult to get a positive boost from the downstream market, and the poor trading atmosphere brings drag on the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.

In this month, the three upstream materials of ABS cost side showed a mixed trend, and the support of ABS cost side weakened. In terms of industry load, the current ABS industry load is high, maintained at a high level of 890%, and the supply side is under pressure due to the continuous abundance of goods on the market. In terms of demand, this month’s market continues the double festival stock up surge of last month, which is also the traditional peak demand season “Silver Ten”. However, with the end of stock up of terminal enterprises in the early stage, including the main downstream household appliances industry, the overall trading and investment in the market has declined. After the festival, there was no rising atmosphere in the market, and buyers did not accept the high offer well. The market momentum was affected, and the polymerization plant lowered the factory price. Near the end of the month, traders increased their interest giving and order taking operations.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the ABS spot market fell after rising in October, and the three upstream materials rose and fell, weakening the support for the ABS cost side. The load of domestic industry is high, the spot supply is abundant, and the market demand is gradually weakening. Some terminal enterprises have digested the inventory in the early stage, and the supply of high priced goods is not smooth. It is expected that ABS spot market may be weak in the short term.