1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene rose rapidly after the festival, and began to weaken continuously in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8020 yuan/ton on October 1 and 8230 yuan/ton on October 28, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month and 20.5% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
During the National Day, supported by the wide rise of crude oil, domestic mixed xylene rose along with it. Due to the weak performance of the terminal gasoline market affected by the epidemic situation, the price has fallen continuously. In addition, the downstream chemical products just need to follow up, and the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly. The price has fallen since the middle of this month. The overall supply of mixed xylene market is tight, the factory inventory pressure is small, supporting the price, and the decline is limited.
In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.
In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market rose slightly this month. On October 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $985/ton, up by US $12.5/ton month on month, or 1.29%.
In terms of PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after rising this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 9000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the beginning of the month, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of OX market, OX in East China stabilized after rising this month, with the price at the beginning of the month at 9000 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 9600 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the beginning of the month and 39.13% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fell continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8693 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8329 yuan/ton, down 4.19% from the beginning of the month and 3.88% from the same period last year.
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3、 Future market forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
In November, the demand side of mixed xylene may continue to weaken, and the price may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.
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