This week (10.17-21), the domestic liquid ammonia market declined. After a sharp rise in September, the market gradually fell from a high level this week. The supply has changed from tight to loose. The amount of ammonia released in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Southwest and other major production areas has increased, and the price has also decreased to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.82% this week, and the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in this area was 3900-4100 yuan/ton near the weekend.

From the supply side, the ammonia release in the main production areas increased sharply this week. Since last weekend, the shipments in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian have increased significantly, and with the effect of manufacturers’ successive price reductions, the shipment has become more powerful. Moreover, due to the downward price of urea, many enterprises have switched to liquid ammonia production, and the short-term ammonia volume has increased significantly, so the supply pressure has increased significantly.

On the end, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is sluggish, and the focus of urea trading has moved down significantly. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea fell 1.92% this week. As of the 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong was 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the downstream industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of plates is generally low. In addition, the demand for compound fertilizer has declined at the end of the autumn peak fertilizer season, and the agricultural demand has entered the slack season. The price of urea dropped from a high level.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the current market atmosphere is weak due to the increased pressure on supply and demand. The risk on the supply side is still increasing. The amount of ammonia released by enterprises may only increase but not decrease in the later period. On the contrary, agricultural demand enters the slack season, and downstream procurement will continue to slow down. Therefore, ammonia prices will continue to be under pressure next week.