1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the large list of business associations, toluene rose slightly in the first ten days of this month and then weakened, and recovered slightly in the second ten days of this month. The price of toluene was 7780 yuan/ton on September 1 and 7700 yuan/ton on September 28, down 1.03% from the beginning of the month; Up 35.33% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
As domestic toluene exports increased in August and domestic sales increased, the supply pressure rose, leading to the continuous decline of toluene. In September, the terminal gasoline consumption increased significantly, which was good for toluene. Some enterprises increased the mixing of toluene for gasoline, decreased the export sales, and eased the pressure on market supply. However, due to the epidemic situation in many places around the Mid Autumn Festival, motor transport was limited, the gasoline market fell back, and the decline of crude oil widened, so toluene opened a downward channel. Near the end of the month, the operators waited for replenishment before the National Day, and the price rose slightly, but the actual demand was weak, and the increase was limited.
On the external side, the Asian market rebounded after falling this month. On September 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 940 dollars/ton, down 61.5 dollars/ton month on month, or 6.14%.
In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to rise widely this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17575 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 19550 yuan/ton, up 11.24% from the beginning of the month and 40.39% from the same period last year.
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In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price rose steadily in the middle of the month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9000 yuan/ton. The price was 2.27% higher than the beginning of the month, and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province weakened this month, and the price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the month was 9454 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8720 yuan/ton, 7.77% lower than the beginning of the month, and 12.2% higher than the same period last year.
3、 Future market forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
As the export heat of toluene decreases, domestic sales will increase. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, and the demand for gasoline blending is expected to gradually decline in October. The supply and demand pressure of toluene may increase in the future, and the price may weaken. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on the price of toluene.
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