1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene rose by a narrow margin this week. The price was 7800 yuan/ton on September 2 and 7840 yuan/ton on Friday (September 9), up 0.51% from last week; 40% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
Gasoline rose positively, and the spot supply of toluene was tight. At the beginning of this week, the market continued to have a high price mentality. However, during the week, crude oil fell sharply, and logistics in some regions was limited, and trading before the festival was average. The traders became cautious, and prices fell slightly.
In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (September 8), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 909 dollars/ton, down 65 dollars/ton year on year, or 6.67%.
In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight crude oil supply still exists. OPEC + plans to cut the oil production target by 100000 barrels per day in October, but the reduction is not large. Moreover, the market is still affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, and the oil price is under pressure. As of September 9, Brent’s price fell by 0.18 USD / barrel or 0.19% compared with last week; WTI fell by US $0.08/barrel, or 0.09%.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On September 2, the price was 18200 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 18850 yuan/ton, 3.57% higher than last week, and 30.6% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week. On September 2, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 8800 yuan/ton. The price was flat compared with last week, up 23.94% compared with the same period last year.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On September 2, the price was 9347 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 9325 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from last week and up 27.02% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, Europe and the United States are strongly expected to raise interest rates, and the market is still worried about economic recession. In the future, the oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the risk of economic recession and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.
In the short term, the supply of toluene continues to be tight, and the support of gasoline demand in the peak season still exists, so the market’s mentality of supporting prices does not decrease. However, the uncertainty of the trend of the cost side and the limitation of logistics and transportation affect the market of toluene. If gasoline falls in the future, toluene may fall. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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