Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price dropped slightly this week. The urea price dropped from 2426.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2348.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.22%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%. On August 14, the urea commodity index was 109.21, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.31% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 96.42% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week.

According to the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has increased slightly, from 6466.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7026.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 31.16% over the same period of last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 7233.33 yuan / ton.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand has basically ended. The rubber plate factory is generally started and mainly needs to purchase. Compound fertilizer enterprises continued to wait and see, and began to purchase one after another at the weekend. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers have overhauled, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Urea price may rise slightly

In the middle and late August, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. The urea analyst of business community believes that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The agricultural demand in the downstream is weakened, the industrial demand is just increased, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recent urea or narrow range fluctuation rise is the main trend.