This week, the zinc price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 15, the zinc price was 24984 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from 24500 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the zinc price rose first and then fell. The fear of supply shortage caused the zinc price to rise sharply. The macroeconomic environment affected the poor demand and the zinc price fell rapidly.

High energy prices cause supply shortage concerns

According to the latest data released by Glencore, the company produced 350900 tons of zinc ingots in the first half of this year, a decrease of 12% – 47500 tons compared with the first half of 2021. Glencore has warned that the energy crisis in Europe has posed a substantial threat to supply, and the company has suspended the operation of a zinc smelter in Europe. At the same time, the company’s other smelters in the region are hardly profitable. Although the demand for industrial metals is facing increasing risks, the European power crisis has seriously affected the supply prospects. After Glencore’s financial report was released overnight, the zinc price of LME soared by 8.5%, the largest intraday increase since March. The fear of supply shortage in zinc market has intensified, which has stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price and increased the driving force of zinc market.

The macro economy is weak and the demand of zinc market is declining

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7946.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. From January to July, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8591.94 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The newly started area of houses was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 559.19 million square meters, down 36.8%. The completed area of houses was 320.28 million square meters, down 23.3%. The real estate market is in full decline, the macroeconomic environment is weak, the demand of zinc market is expected to decline, and the rise of zinc market is not supported enough.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the continuous energy crisis in Europe and the growing concern about the supply shortage in the international zinc market have played a certain role in supporting the rise of zinc price. However, the domestic demand for zinc has dropped significantly. Although the national infrastructure stimulus policies have been issued one after another, the lag of the policy impact and the expected impact of insufficient demand have limited room for zinc price rise in the future. It is expected that the high zinc price in the future will be adjusted in a wide range.