According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 7, the rare earth index was 720 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 28.50% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 165.68% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the product prices in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market declined. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of August 8, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 802500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 6.14% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 1.015 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.58%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 805000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.85%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 754500 yuan / ton, down 4.49% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 920000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.15%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.095 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 5.19%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market is declining, the recent downstream purchase is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises is deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active, and some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earth continues to decline.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased significantly. In the recent period, the demand for new energy was general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of August 8, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.295 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.86% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.305 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 0.22%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.055 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.81% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are all + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earths will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock and mineral type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic type rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increase will be concentrated on light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In the long term, the domestic rare earth market will still be supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the downstream procurement is not active in the short term, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall. However, in the long term, the rare earth industry still has support.