Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, from 2868.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2638.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 8.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%. On July 17, the urea commodity index was 122.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.45% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (2022-05-15), and up 120.68% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is low

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, down 240 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, down 270 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall looked low this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5766.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5798.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.55%, a year-on-year increase of 37.07% compared with the same period last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7966.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. Agricultural demand in some regions has been appropriately followed up. Compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories are generally started, and just need to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers overhaul, and the daily output of urea is less than 150000 tons.

The future price of urea may rebound at the bottom

In the middle and late July, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is mainly rigid, the printing standard is stimulated, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recently, urea may rise in a narrow range.