Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business club, the domestic ABS market was weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands were reduced. As of June 17, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13650 yuan / ton, up or down +2.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell this week. The main reason is that the crude oil price fell, which weakened the cost support of downstream chemicals, leading to the decline of styrene. In the early stage, there were a lot of on-site styrene plant maintenance and the port inventory decreased, but the current downstream demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, and the spot price is weak.

The price of acrylonitrile continued to weaken this week, the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was completed, the domestic industry load was high, the supply pressure was high, and the spot price continued to drag. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the ex factory spot price is under multiple pressures. In the future, there is an expectation of supply reduction, and the decline of spot price is limited.

The domestic butadiene market fell significantly this week, mainly due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand: some units in East China were restarted, and the supply side was significantly supplemented. But at the same time, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the synthetic rubber market fell, dragging down the market inquiry atmosphere. Under the drag of poor transaction, the butadiene market fell rapidly.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the overall support weakened. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited change, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. Health incidents in East China have eased, and it will take some time for the market to fully recover. The market of the industry in the off-season gradually stands, and the mentality of the industry is not strong. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained, but affected by the Federal Reserve, crude oil fell at a high level, which was bad for the petrochemical industry chain. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the ABS spot market was weak and stable this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.