1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, mixed xylene rose in shock this month, and the price rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.5% over the beginning of the month and 32.66% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil rose broadly this month, with strong cost support. The gasoline market in the United States is rising, the demand for related toluene and xylene is strong, the price in the U.S. gold market is high, and the domestic toluene export is positive. Due to the problem of export tax rebate, the export arbitrage of mixed xylene was limited, mainly followed by the rise of toluene and crude oil in the month.
In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.
In terms of external trading, Asian mixed xylene in external trading rose by more than 10% this month. On May 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $1242.5/t, a month on month increase of $176 / T, or 16.5%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 1207.5/t, with a month on month increase of USD 118 / T, or 10.83%.
In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of ox market, the price ladder of ox in East China rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8600 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.88% over the beginning of the month and 38.71% over the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.
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3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is strong, the external price is high, and the external news support is good. The downstream PX operating rate has increased, the demand is well supported, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene price.
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