1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8637.5 yuan / ton on May 20, down 32.5 yuan / ton from 8670 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.37% during the cycle and 6.25% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

During the week, the price of PVC fell slightly, the disk was weak, the futures price fell, the spot market fell significantly, and the focus shifted downward. The price of raw calcium carbide is temporarily stable and the cost support is acceptable, but the downstream demand is less than expected, the release of real estate demand is insufficient, and public health events in various parts of China are still severe. PVC enterprises have poor shipments, increased inventories and reduced prices, but the market trading sentiment is not high. As of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8600-8850 yuan / ton. For the external price, the PVC export quotation of Formosa Plastics in June was reduced by 120-150 US dollars / ton, CFR India by 150 US dollars to 1410 US dollars / ton, CFR China by 130 US dollars to 1210 US dollars / ton, and FOB Taiwan by 1170 US dollars / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from February 28, 2022 to May 22, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum rise is in the week of February 28 and the maximum decline is in the week of April 25. There is little overall fluctuation in the near future.

International crude oil futures rose slightly on May 20. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.28/barrel, up US $0.39 or 0.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.23/barrel, up US $1.02 or 0.9%.

Ethylene, the external ethylene market this week showed an overall downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1096-1106 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 19th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1732-1741 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1410-1418 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 19th, the price was 629-646 yuan / ton. This week, the external market ethylene showed a downward trend. The actual transaction was poor, and the price gradually fell.

Calcium carbide, in late May, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide increased, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late May.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the downstream demand is general, and the export has weakened. Although some enterprises plan maintenance, there is still pressure on enterprise shipment, and the market sentiment is negative. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term.