1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8670 yuan / ton on May 15, down 30 yuan / ton from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.34% during the cycle and 6.05% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

With the return of the May Day holiday, the disk is relatively strong, coupled with the increase in the price of raw calcium carbide, the cost support is enhanced, and the PVC futures and spot prices rise hand in hand, but the rise has not lasted for a long time. The rise began to stop in the middle of the year, the mainstream prices across the country began to decline, and the market focus continued to move downward. Although the market has entered the peak season, public health events in various parts of China are still severe, restraining some demand, and the recent market transactions are tepid. As of the 15th, the price of raw calcium carbide is around 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8600-9000 yuan / ton. At present, CFR China’s price is US $1300 / ton, CFR India’s price is US $1520 / ton, and Southeast Asia’s price is US $1395 / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from February 21, 2022 to May 15, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum increase is in the week of February 28 and the maximum decrease is in the week of February 21. The overall fluctuation is small.

International crude oil futures rose sharply on May 13. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $110.49/barrel, up US $4.36 or 4.1%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.55/barrel, up US $4.10 or 3.8%. The epidemic situation in Asia has improved, and demand expectations and concerns have eased; The superimposed market is cautious about the EU oil embargo against Russia, and the expectation of supply tightening is still playing a role.

Ethylene, the external ethylene market this week showed an overall downward trend. Ethylene market prices in Asia fell. As of the 12th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1166-1176 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1216-1226 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 12th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1758-1767 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1408-1417 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 12th, the price was 618-636 yuan / ton. This week, the inquiry in the external ethylene market was poor, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the price fell continuously.

Calcium carbide, in mid May, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is adjusted at a low level, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market has a downward trend, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid May.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, it is the maintenance season, with the increase of raw materials and the support of supply costs. Although the downstream demand is lower than expected, it still has a certain toughness. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.