Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week, from 3118.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 3265.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.71%, a year-on-year increase of 49.54%. On May 15, the urea commodity index was 152.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 173.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is good, the downstream demand increases and the urea supply decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3450 yuan / ton this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3250 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 3205 yuan / ton this weekend, up 125 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 7302.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 6936.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.01%, a year-on-year increase of 77.39% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have been running smoothly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 5126.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5333.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.03%, a year-on-year increase of 39.25% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 10233.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.65%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand in Xinjiang and southern China is good, the demand of enterprises in Hefei is increased, the plate factory purchases on demand, and the demand of urea industry is sufficient. Buy up rather than buy down, and the trading atmosphere of urea is good. From the perspective of supply: there were many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the supply decreased. Various factors continue to drive up the price of urea. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle of May, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market rose slightly and the cost support is better. The agricultural demand is weakened, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is general, the plate factory purchases on demand, and the downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high price urea. From the perspective of supply: there are many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the urea supply is expected to decline. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price remained unchanged, and urea fell slightly in the future.