According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market showed an “m” shock rising trend in March. As of March 30, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6134 yuan / ton, up 7.12% from the beginning of the month and 38.67% year-on-year.

In March, the plant restart and maintenance of domestic PTA plants were carried out in parallel. At present, the operating rate of the industry is around 76%. Hengli, Yisheng and other large factories announced the maintenance arrangement from April to may, especially the planned maintenance of many devices in April. PTA enterprises have production losses and may have unplanned maintenance. At the same time, PTA suppliers reduced the contract supply in April, PTA circulation spot is too small, and PTA supply will remain tight in April. In addition, logistics in some areas affects PTA transportation.

Crude oil prices fluctuated upward, providing PTA with cost side positive support. As of March 30, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.82/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.44/barrel, up about 13% from the beginning of the month. At present, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that the US crude oil inventory has decreased continuously, indicating that the supply is still tight; In addition, the market is worried that Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still difficult to improve in the short term, and the risk of supply interruption remains in the future.

The downstream polyester inventory is high. In April, the production reduction plan of large polyester factories was the main one. It was heard that the maintenance capacity is higher than 5 million tons, and the demand for PTA has weakened. From April to June, 1.95 million tons of new polyester production capacity is planned to be put into operation, but the current demand and inventory situation are not optimistic, and the production situation is also variable. The fermentation of the epidemic situation in many places in China has led to a significant decline in terminal demand. Late March is the traditional peak season of the polyester industry, but under the influence of the current round of epidemic blockade, terminal orders and start-up have fallen to a certain extent, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is less than 65%.

Business analysts believe that in April, under the tight supply and demand, it has played a sustained support for the oil market and is afraid to remain high. However, affected by the epidemic, the “peak season” of the terminal textile industry continues, the commencement and orders decline, the demand drag performance is weak, and the market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the maintenance of PTA unit, the implementation effect of actual production reduction in large polyester plants and the trend of crude oil price.