According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market continued to decline. Recently, the rare earth market fell slightly. Recently, the price of some domestic praseodymium neodymium series fell, and the price of the heavy rare earth market fell slightly. On March 20, the rare earth index was 950 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.66% from the highest point 1007 in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 250.55% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market price has continued to decline, and the price of mainstream praseodymium neodymium in the rare earth market has mainly declined. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of the 21st, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earths was 1.12 million yuan / ton, down 3.45% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.38 million yuan / ton, down 2.82% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 1.055 million yuan / ton, down 1.86% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 1025000 yuan / ton, down 2.84% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.25 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 6.02% this week; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.365 million yuan / ton, which fell by 1.80% this week, and the trend of domestic rare earth market continued to fall.

The domestic rare earth market price continued to decline, the on-site supply gap remained, the metal plant started normally and the demand remained stable, but the downstream manufacturers had sufficient inventory and the inquiry was very cold, resulting in the decline of the market price trend. Recently, some separation enterprises have started gradually, so the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated slightly. The price trend in the field is mainly declining, the downstream demand is normal, and the supply and demand gap in the rare earth field still exists. There is a game between the upstream and downstream, the mainstream price of rare earth is weak as a whole, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. The rapid development of the new energy industry has driven the development of many industries. The upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express”. In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles are normal, and the demand for rare earth is OK. However, the inventory of downstream manufacturers is high, the price inquiry of rare earth oxide is poor, and the market has fallen. Recently, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream has increased, and the price trend in the venue has continued to decline.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing, and the peak season of traditional demand for rare earth has come to an end. However, the launch of relevant policies of the rare earth industry on the site is expected, the supply and demand is expected to resonate with the policies, and the rare earth market is still maintained. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, and the decline of price trend is limited. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in February 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, down 25.2% and 31.4% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7%. The automobile production and sales showed a steady and slight growth. Driven by the dual drive of market and policy, the demand market for vehicle regulated semiconductors broke out in an all-round way, and the demand in the field of new energy has been high recently, The domestic light rare earth market demand has been supported to a certain extent. Affected by the inactive purchase, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market declined slightly.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the price trend of domestic dysprosium series has declined. As of the 21st, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.905 million yuan / ton, down 3.97% this week, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.915 million yuan / ton, down 3.16%, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.875 million yuan / ton, down 1.27% this week, the price of domestic terbium series has declined, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 14 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 18.25 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth dropped, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market was acceptable, and the procurement of leading magnetic material factory was not active, which cooled the domestic heavy rare earth market slightly. Recently, some separation enterprises in the areas where medium and heavy rare earth mines are used, such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, have restarted, and the supply has been alleviated to some extent. However, Myanmar’s export is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is not active, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend has declined.

In addition, with the support of national policies, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 meet the expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. The rise in foreign demand has led to some support for the domestic rare earth market. On the whole, the inquiry list in the market is cold, and the domestic rare earth market has cooled down.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand has been supported to a certain extent. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight. Recently, the on-site transaction market has dropped, and the supply enterprises will continue to restart in the later stage. Chen Ling, a business social analyst, predicts that the market price of rare earth may continue to fall in the later stage.