1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of February 27, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refined hydrogenated naphtha was 9035.75 yuan / ton, up 18.68% from 7613.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha rose.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of February 27, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 8782.50 yuan / ton, up 16.21% from 7557.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha rose as a whole.

On February 27, the naphtha commodity index was 111.52, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 164.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of local refined naphtha rose as a whole this month. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8900-9100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8700-8900 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international crude oil drove the naphtha market to rise continuously. After the festival, businesses actively replenished goods to boost the naphtha market; Affected by the fluctuation of crude oil, the trend of naphtha market in the last ten days, and the naphtha start-up in the local refining market was low. As of the week of February 23, Singapore’s fuel stocks fell 2.758 million barrels to a more than one month low of 21.37 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 106000 barrels to a more than one month low of 7.356 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate inventories rose 294000 barrels to a three week high of 14.444 million barrels.

Upstream: the rise of international crude oil in February was mainly due to the escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the continuous rise of oil prices. From the fundamentals of supply and demand, the oil market is also in a tight balance. In recent months, the increase in production of the organization of petroleum exporting countries and its allies (OPEC +) has not reached the target. Some countries have difficulties in increasing production, which has led to the tension of supply. In addition, in the post epidemic era, The continuous recovery of demand and the steady increase of fuel demand also provide preconditions for the rise of oil prices.

Downstream: after the wide rise of toluene in February, it maintained a volatile trend and rose again in late February. The price of toluene was 6060 yuan / ton on February 1 and 7370 yuan / ton on February 25, up 21.62% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene rose in a wide range in February and entered the range of shock trend, and the price rose again near the end of the month. On February 1, the price of mixed xylene was 6240 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, up 25.48% from the beginning of the month. The price of p-xylene rose sharply in February. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, up 9.59% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the sharp rise in international crude oil prices supports the naphtha market. At present, the naphtha operation in the local refining market is low, and the middlemen and downstream procurement are cautious, focusing on just demand. It is expected that the local refining naphtha may continue to rise in the near future.