1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in January. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 154366.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 168766.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 9.33% and a year-on-year increase of 24.14%.

Previously, the import volume of nickel ore in the rainy season in the Philippines fell sharply, the market supply was tight, the nickel price was boosted, and the nickel price rose sharply. On the one hand, the production of stainless steel decreased from January to February; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for nickel sulfate in the field of electric vehicles. Ternary precursor enterprises begin to stock up before the Spring Festival, and the demand for nickel sulfate increases.

The nickel price rose sharply and then fell sharply from the high level:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

To sum up: affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.