According to the survey data of business society, the price of caustic soda increased first and then decreased in 2021, and the price fell from November. From the annual price comparison chart, we can see that the price of caustic soda in mid and late October has reached the highest level in ten years. Mainly affected by the “double control” policy.

As can be seen from the monthly K residence chart of caustic soda, the price fell in January, February, April and November of 2021, and the biggest increase in other rising months was 90% in September.

According to the survey data of business agency, the average market price of caustic soda at the beginning of the year was about 485 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 1000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 106.19%. The price of caustic soda was adjusted in the first and second quarters. The price rose from June to early November, then fell from November, and began to rebound from mid to late December.

As can be seen from the above figure, the overall price of caustic soda rose 106.19%, the downstream formic acid rose 62.26% and corrugated paper rose 12.97% in 2021. The rise of downstream prices drives the demand for caustic soda.

In the first quarter, the average market price was about 485 yuan / ton on January 1 and 490 yuan / ton on March 31, with a price increase of 1.03%. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively increase their quotation, it has a limited impact on the market.

In the second quarter, the price of caustic soda began to rise slightly. On April 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 490 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average market price was about 517.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.61%. Due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, the demand for caustic soda is acceptable. However, at present, the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other regions mainly wait and see. The subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda is still the main.

In the third quarter, the price of caustic soda in Shandong rose sharply. On July 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 517.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average market price of caustic soda was about 1235 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 138.65%. Recently, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased, while the downstream alumina is still supported by the demand side. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, with a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

From late October to the end of November, the price of caustic soda went down. At the beginning of the month, due to the dual control policy, caustic soda manufacturers stopped and the supply decreased. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises are more active in purchasing caustic soda in the near future, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is increased. In late October, the prices of alumina purchasing enterprises and caustic soda were lowered, and the recent demand of downstream was general.

Since the middle of December, the price began to rebound again, mainly because the enterprise inventory was low and the downstream alumina procurement was better than that in the early stage. The increase of caustic soda is mainly due to the maintenance of manufacturers, the environmental protection inspection at the end of the year and the advent of the Winter Olympic Games. It is expected that the supply will decrease, the inventory of enterprises will decrease and the price of caustic soda will rise.

Caustic soda: business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda in January is relatively consolidated. Due to the impact of the environment and policies in 2021, caustic soda has a large increase. Throughout 2022, there may not be a historical high in 2021, but it will usher in the peak season according to the price in the third quarter of previous years, and the consolidation and operation in other months will focus on the downstream market demand.