According to the data of business agency, as of January 23, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5330.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% from 5270.00 yuan / ton on January 17.

On January 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 107.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.19% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 134.27% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 23, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5250 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5350 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5400 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of January 19, Singapore’s fuel oil depot had 21.199 million barrels, a decrease of 1.114 million barrels over last week. The inventory of medium distillates was 8.525 million barrels, an increase of 1.355 million barrels over last week. The light fraction inventory was 13.534 million barrels, down 118000 barrels from last week. As of the weekend, the monthly difference back structure of 10ppm diesel paper goods in February / March reached around $1.43/barrel, slightly lower than last week.

Future forecast: the recent high international crude oil price and the rise in the price of raw materials in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market. The market has strong upward sentiment, but the terminal procurement is light, the transaction just needs to be purchased, and it is mainly wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5250-5400 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the overall fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.