1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued to rise this week and stabilized after a wide rise in prices. On January 14, the price in Shandong was 11000-11220 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On January 21, the price in Shandong was 11600-11820 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.03% over last week and 49.37% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (January 21), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7680 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, or 1.99%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.67%. Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, good negotiation enthusiasm in the pure benzene market, and the price rose. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream pre festival goods preparation basically ended, the buying decreased, the selling increased, and the high price of pure benzene fell. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, which also gave positive support to the market.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid was stable this week. On Friday (January 21), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2183.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 8.26% compared with the same period last year.

Tight supply: last weekend, Dongying Huatai plant stopped briefly and restarted half load operation on January 20. Shanxi Tianji aniline plant maintained half load operation, and the aniline market supply was tight. High cost: the cost price is high, pure benzene increased by 1.99% in the week, and the price of nitric acid is stable. The demand side is stable: I heard that some downstream pre Festival parking, but the market is better. Aniline prices stabilized after rising this week, and East China followed Shandong.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the pure benzene negotiation is becoming lighter. Crude oil is expected to continue high-level operation and support pure benzene well. Overall, it is expected that the horizontal consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week, and there may be a downward trend, but the decline is limited. In terms of nitric acid, near the end of the year, most enterprises are ready to stop for maintenance. The goods in the nitric acid market are not good, and the quotation of nitric acid is weak to maintain stability.

Next week is the last week before the festival, and the downstream demand may weaken. However, under the support of tight aniline supply and high cost price, aniline consolidation is expected to be the main trend. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.